Where is the Dubai Market Now?
An honest read of the cycle from 18 years of DLD sales (through 2025). Interpretation of signals — not a prediction.
Current phase (interpreted)
Growth — Maturing
Prices and volume are at record highs but price growth has decelerated for several years running, while the off-plan supply share keeps climbing — a maturing expansion drifting toward the later part of the cycle. Whether this becomes a soft plateau or a peak cannot be predicted.
▲
we are here
Recovery
Growth
Peak
Correction
Prices
+5.8% YoY
rising but decelerating · 5y CAGR 11.9%
Volume
180,354 sales
+241% vs 18y avg · record high
vs 2014
+48.6%
record-high price level
Supply (off-plan)
73%
off-plan share · rising (was 53% in 2020)
Price growth by year — still positive, slowing down
-0.4%
2018
-1.2%
2019
-6.3%
2020
+13.8%
2021
+22.5%
2022
+9.9%
2023
+8%
2024
+5.8%
2025
+4.2%
2026*
Prices are still rising every year, but the rate of increase has slowed for several years (+22.5% in 2022 → +5.8% in 2025). *2026 is a partial year.
How to read this
- • Cycle phase is an interpretation of market signals, not a prediction. We don't forecast crashes or booms.
- • We show the underlying signals (price trend, volume, supply) — judge for yourself.
- • Deceleration can mean a soft plateau or a turn — it doesn't tell us which.
- • Pre-2014 prices are sparse/noisy and excluded from trend and peak claims.
- Dubai Land Department residential (Flat/Villa) sales. Do your own research.